The analysts predicted refugee flows of 5 million to 10 million people from Ukraine to Western Europe. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable. On Tuesday, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, stopped the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in response to Russia’s recognition of the two self-proclaimed republics. Mr Gorbachev said later that the topic of Nato expansion was never discussed at the time. If they weren't able to compel Ukraine towards a desirable outcome by taking half of the Donbass, what would another limited incursion achieve exactly? he said. Unprecedented, supposedly game-changing US and EU sanctions will follow an invasion. Fearing protests, the Kremlin is reluctant to call for mobilisation and is forced to take extraordinary steps (e.g. extending the age limit for volunteers ready to join the war), opting for a covert form of recruitment, like through the use of reservists. Other analysts warn of a quagmire — where there is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia — if an insurgency continued long term. But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. The collective West (and specifically NATO) can count on its likely ability to contain an aggressive Russia, at least in the long run. But Ukraine’s defeat of the aggressor is the indispensable goal in this context as it would severely limit Russia’s ability to attack other countries, provide time to augment collective defence and consolidate international unity against aggression. Madrid Summit decisions have supplied key elements of the required strategy. The credibility of collective defence will also depend on the quick implementation of already-announced pledges for increased defence spending and the prioritisation of defence planning efforts based on the scenario of large-scale conflict in Europe. In this context, appropriate stockpiles of military equipment are essential. As current levels are eminently insufficient, procurement practices and defence industry production capacity must be adapted, and stocks augmented quickly. Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024 Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol. There have also been reports of troops landing by sea at the Black Sea port cities of Mariupol and Odesa in the south. There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions. That's what's most likely today too, analysts say, so the effect on people with 401(k) accounts may be short term. The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, moves by the Federal Reserve to curb its stimulus programs and the looming conflict in Ukraine. Markets are fundamentally not prepared for a land war in Europe in the 21st century, Rediker said. Ukrainian economic output and industry will likely be significantly disrupted. The country is a major source of neon, which is used in manufacturing semiconductors. It is the largest such exodus since the Bolshevik revolution and could result in an enormous country-wide brain drain; something that is already being experienced in the IT sector. In this scenario, the strategists noted that a Ukrainian insurgency could force a significant, sustained human and financial toll on Russia as it would be required to devote far more of its resources over a much longer period of time than it had anticipated. Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO's border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. A war of attrition is now taking place along an active front line of 850km (530 miles) and Russian victories are small and rare. What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. President Putin never said it out loud, but high on the agenda was toppling the government of Ukraine's elected president. The enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two, said Volodymyr Zelensky. ways to cope with the stressful news cycle Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe. They could simply be casualties of a military invasion, Rediker said. For one, Russia could choose to cut off or limit oil and gas exports to Europe as retaliation for sanctions. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia — and no European country imports more than Germany, a key ally of the United States. The decision of India’s Tata Steel this month to shut its two blast furnaces at Port Talbot, for example, means that Britain may soon be unable to make steel from scratch. Without steel, there are no tanks, no warships and no artillery shells. The decline in manufacturing means there are far fewer factories that can be converted to make arms, as happened in the Second World War, when car makers churned out Spitfire parts. And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports. President Putin, 70, has sought to distance himself from military failures, but his authority, at least outside Russia, has been shredded and he makes few trips beyond its borders. The UN human rights commissioner says at least 8,006 civilians have died and 13,287 have been wounded in 12 months of war, but the true number is likely to be substantially higher. BBC Russian has identified more than 15,000 Russian soldiers killed in the first year of war and suggests the most conservative estimate would be at least double that, with more than 100,000 others wounded or missing. He has spoken of the capture of this territory, which includes the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol, as a significant result for Russia. The Sea of Azov, inside the Kerch Strait, has become Russia's internal sea, he declared, pointing out that even Russian Tsar Peter the Great did not manage that. He vowed to protect people from eight years of Ukrainian bullying and genocide - a Russian propaganda claim with no foundation in reality. Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin's brutality for all to see. Russia has captured the town of Soledar this year and has hopes of seizing the eastern city of Bakhmut on the road to key cities to the west, and of recapturing territory it lost last autumn. His announcement came as the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting, stunning ambassadors who had to deliver impromptu reactions to the rapidly changing events. If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. President Putin could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato. Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. We're going to need to see some meaningful de-escalation if there's actually going to be concrete progress, he said. If there is going to be progress, Blinken said, it won't happen in an environment of escalation with a gun to Ukraine's head. His comments follow days of diplomatic talks and a deadlock on resolving the crisis brewing along the Ukraine-Russia border. For his part, Trump has said that he'd be able to resolve the Ukraine war in one day if he was reelected, saying he'd convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal. Rumblings of discontent over continuing Ukraine aid have been heard in some Republican quarters for months now, as well as in Eastern Europe. After liberating a handful of villages in the summer, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been caught in largely attritional battles, with neither side making significant gains. For now, Sedova said she is more worried about subtler attacks — like influence campaigns that aim to sow discord between us and our allies in our resolve to act jointly against Russia. Russia is a major exporter of rare-earth minerals and heavy metals — such as titanium used in airplanes. Russia supplies about a third of the world's palladium, a rare metal used in catalytic converters, and its price has soared in recent weeks over fears of a conflict. There's a geopolitical premium, or call it a fear premium, in the price of oil, Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, told Morning Edition. Latest examples include curtailing gas supplies for political reasons, violating the airspace of a NATO country, threatening Lithuania, and using economic blackmail against Collective Security Treaty Organization member, Kazakhstan. That figure cannot be confirmed, but it followed a US estimate of some 100,000 Ukrainians killed or wounded by November. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. Russia supplies about a third of the world's palladium, a rare metal used in catalytic converters, and its price has soared in recent weeks over fears of a conflict. The invasion could send 1 million to 5 million refugees fleeing Ukraine, U.S. officials and humanitarian agencies have warned. https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-turkey-in-relation-to-ukraine.html have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure, Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR. As a result, U.S. officials have warned various sectors, including the semiconductor and aerospace industries, to brace for supply chain disruptions. Further sanctions, energy market disruptions and cyberwarfare could reach Americans seemingly far removed from the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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