According to the United Nations, on March 9, evacuations did happen in some places, but there was “limited movement” in the vulnerable areas, like Mariupol and the outskirts of Kyiv. Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of shelling some of those routes, and have rejected Russia’s calls for refugees to be evacuated to Russia or Belarus. Russian officials have blamed disruption on Ukrainian forces. That has not stopped a catastrophe from unfolding within Ukraine, even as it has prompted Western allies to effectively wage economic warfare against Moscow with unprecedented sanctions. Russia’s invasion has the potential to set up a clash of nuclear world powers. It’s destabilizing the region and terrorizing Ukrainian citizens. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be devastated in the process, the strategists said. The only way that that happens is when Russia believes that everybody else has the fortitude and staying power for this conflict. For months, Russia built up troops along the Ukrainian border, reaching around 190,000 on the eve of the invasion. Severe U.S. sanctions could drive up prices for everyday Russians or cause Russia's currency or markets to crash. “One thing we do know is that Putin is very patient, and he can’t withdraw until he says that he’s had a victory,” Stent says. William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and U.S.-USSR negotiations to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. Peter Wilson is an adjunct international/defense researcher at RAND. In sum, the United States, its NATO allies, and Ukraine could impose immediate and painful costs on any Russian invaders. And for many years thereafter, Russia could face reinforced NATO military power. Ukraine conflict: What we know about the invasion He has called the possibility of Nato membership for Ukraine a “red line” for the Kremlin. Third, he wants to show that popular revolutions such as the one that took place in Kyiv in 2014 do not succeed in the long run. And very importantly, compared to the Russians in Afghanistan or Chechnya, the thing that would be different this time would that it would all be taking place in the environment of intensive social media. These two responsibilities—robustly defending European peace and prudently avoiding military escalation with Russia—will not necessarily be compatible. A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. This year Russia has undertaken a major military buildup near Ukraine's border and in Crimea. The political, domestic, and international costs to Russia could challenge Putin’s regime. Amid the fighting, there have been widespread reports of war crimes and attacks on civilians by Russian forces in Ukraine. That scenario, of a Russian military incursion into a Nato country, almost unthinkable until recently, is when Nato and Russia could indeed be at war with each other. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-armoured-vehicles-is-the-uk-sending-to-ukraine.html could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato. Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. Ukraine invasion — explained The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. They could help deny Moscow the capacity to conduct a large-scale heavy fire power campaign to rapidly occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and seize key cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. With Russia's formidable air and naval power, any offensive would most likely feature bombing raids, missile strikes and cyberattacks that could devastate Ukraine's military infrastructure, disrupt communications and pin down ground troops. “Despite the surprisingly poor military performance of the Russian military to date, we’re still in the early opening phase of this conflict,” said Sara Bjerg Moller, an assistant professor of international security at Seton Hall University. There are some signals that the Americans have threatened Russia that if they use a nuclear weapon, the US would enter the conflict directly and attack Russian forces in Ukraine and I think that that's the most likely scenario, Professor Fruehling said. Crowdfunding military equipment for Ukraine – already successful in Lithuania – shows that the general international public is sympathetic and wants to play its part in this process. So the best possible outcome here, beyond Ukraine being able to prevail on the battlefield, is a negotiated settlement that is in Ukraine’s favor, that leads to commitments to its security and reconstruction, and leads to some soul searching in Russia. They feel that, if not stopped in and by Ukraine, Putin may entertain aggression against other territories. Russia has one of the biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, and is estimated to have thousands of nuclear warheads in its stockpile, assigned for both long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. So for Putin, he will see this is a very propitious moment, to re-up the idea of a negotiation for a ceasefire on his terms. And, of course, we’ve got all of the drama around the issue of a ceasefire in the Middle East. There may also be a push from many other countries to say, let’s stop, we need to focus on the disasters in Gaza, let’s just get Russia and Ukraine to put their war to one side. Putin’s already playing into this, trying to get other countries to say, “Look, we’re always dealing with Europe’s problems. This is more consequential for everyone.” Putin is likely hoping that there’ll be pressure put on Ukraine that way as well, to come to the negotiating table because of the international imperative to focus on the Middle East crisis. Other countries elsewhere in the world have been watching, seeing Russia adapt and learn lessons, do more with less. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority. Many have taken refugee in oblasts (basically, administrative regions) in western and northwestern Ukraine. In Mariupol, a city of 400,000 that has been under Russian siege for days, people were reportedly melting snow for drinking water. Humanitarian groups say the fighting is making it difficult to deliver aid or to reach those civilians left behind — often elderly or disabled people, or other vulnerable populations that didn’t have the ability to flee. Even in the early days of this war, Russia’s efforts are already having this effect. We are providing weapons to Ukraine, we’re buying them from major manufacturers of defense systems here in the United States, which are obviously providing jobs for the people who are making them. And then we’re going back and we’re ordering more because we’re replenishing and upgrading our own weapons stocks. These defense manufacturers account for huge numbers of jobs across the whole of the United States, so arming Ukraine means significant job creation and retention across the United States and also in Europe and elsewhere. There’s several different ways in which we can look at the nuclear front. But concrete pledges of national contributions, like those announced by US President Biden on 29 June, must follow quickly from all Allies. But barring Putin’s sudden departure - which would trigger a political transformation in Moscow - Russia will still present a dangerous threat to security in Europe. The regime, led by a delusional and ageing dictator, is prone to irrational decision-making. But the ruthless conduct of the military campaign (e.g. indiscriminate use of blanket shelling) means that even incompetent Russian forces can achieve gains against the Ukrainian military, though it is being modernised at record pace. Actually, we’re looking pretty pathetic, I can’t think of any other way to describe it. National security ought to begin at the border of the United States. We’ve got ourselves dangerously polarized along partisan lines, even though most Americans are not that polarized on this particular issue. I think the majority of Americans can see the importance of Ukraine. The majority of members of Congress and the Senate, irrespective of party, can see this as well. The crash, and Russia’s claims that Ukraine had downed a plane with its own soldiers aboard, poses a vexing challenge for a government in Kyiv trying to brace its citizens for a third year of war. Even neutral countries like Switzerland have imposed sanctions (though there are loopholes.) Big Tech companies, cultural institutions, and international corporations, from Mastercard to McDonald’s, are pulling out of the country. This would greatly complicate rump Ukraine’s ability to move forward and rebuild. While the world's attention has focused on Russia's troop buildup on its land border with Ukraine, Moscow also has expanded its naval power near Ukraine's coast, including amphibious forces and naval infantry, experts said. If the United States doesn’t pass the supplemental [bill to approve aid to Ukraine], and we get this chorus of members of Congress calling for the United States to pull away from Ukraine, Putin will be able to switch this around and say, “There you go. Even if a strong argument can be made in favor of that, given Putin’s actions, such language poses challenges for Western diplomats who must forge an off-ramp for Putin to end this war. Zelenskyy has signaled some openness to neutrality, but Ukraine is going to want some serious security guarantees that it’s not clear Russia is willing to give. According to a conservative estimate by US intelligence, around 7,000 Russian personnel have died so far — more troops than the US lost over two decades of fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq. Another 3.3 million Ukrainians have escaped, mostly to neighboring countries like Poland, Romania, and Moldova. It is Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II, and host countries and aid agencies are trying to meet the astounding needs of these refugees, most of whom are women and children.
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