The West’s sanctions are throttling Russia’s economy, and they could do lasting damage. Russia’s war has strengthened the Western alliance in the immediate term, but that political will could be tested as energy prices spike and as the war and refugee crisis wear on. https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-did-boris-johnson-travel-to-ukraine.html (military and civilians alike) are being killed simply because they are Ukrainians. Whole cities – like Mariupol – are being razed to the ground. Evident atrocities fitting the criteria of war crimes are being perpetrated and accompanied by genocidal talk on Russian state TV. Hundreds of thousands of people, including children, have been forcefully deported to Russia. They are feeling distinctly nervous that Russian forces might not stop at Ukraine and instead use some pretext to come to the aid of the ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltics and invade. But western leaders still fear Russia could be poised to make a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The cause of the crash remains unknown, though Ukrainian officials have not denied shooting down the aircraft. They say they cannot confirm that Ukrainian soldiers on their way to a prisoner exchange were aboard the plane. The crash, and Russia’s claims that Ukraine had downed a plane with its own soldiers aboard, poses a vexing challenge for a government in Kyiv trying to brace its citizens for a third year of war. NATO vs. Russia And then the coverage in the Russian press — their commentators are crowing with glee at the predicament of the Ukrainians, clapping their hands, literally and figuratively, about the peril for Ukraine in the U.S. Because, of course, the standstill is the main issue at hand. The Ukrainians were initially able to take back quite a lot of the territory that the Russians seized in the early phases of the invasion, but then the Russians dug in. The sanctions put on Russia in 2014, which were connected to formal diplomacy (often referred to as the “Minsk” process, after the city in which the negotiations were held), were not draconian. Following a Russian invasion of Ukraine, new sanctions on banking and on technology transfer would be significant and permanent. They would come in the wake of failed diplomacy and would start at “the top of the ladder,” according to the U.S. administration. Russia's at war with Ukraine. Here's how we got here Many experts have tended to agree it's unlikely Mr Putin will resort to using nuclear weapons. While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin if Russia's demands are not satisfied. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks. But if the conflict causes long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom. He’s trying to whip up anti-United States sentiment wherever he can. With Russia's formidable air and naval power, any offensive would most likely feature bombing raids, missile strikes and cyberattacks that could devastate Ukraine's military infrastructure, disrupt communications and pin down ground troops. And successful peace negotiations at this stage seem unlikely. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled petty politics in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. What If Russia Wins? In response, Russia will retaliate, quite possibly in the cyber-domain as well as in the energy sector. Moscow will limit access to critical goods such as titanium, of which Russia has been the world’s second-largest exporter. Russia will be ruthless in trying to get one or several European states to back away from economic conflict by linking a relaxation in tension to these countries’ self-interest, thus undermining consensus in the EU and NATO. The United States and Europe will also be in a state of permanent economic war with Russia. The West will seek to enforce sweeping sanctions, which Russia is likely to parry with cyber-measures and energy blackmailing, given the economic asymmetries. China might well stand on Russia’s side in this economic tit for tat. Russia’s military is likely to make a formal entrance into the territories soon. There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko. The holy grail of these informational, political, and cyberbattles will be the 2024 presidential election in the United States. There may also be a push from many other countries to say, let’s stop, we need to focus on the disasters in Gaza, let’s just get Russia and Ukraine to put their war to one side. Here's how the invasion will have ripple effects far outside the borders of the conflict. But if Ukraine does not break, Russia could pay a high price. Ukrainian defenders have geographical scale and a military hardened by seven years of fighting in eastern Ukraine. By avoiding Russian efforts at rapid encirclement, Ukraine could trade space for time. Stingers could down Russian airlifters and helicopters providing logistics support to forward fighters. Biden rejected the US enforcement of a no-fly zone in Ukraine, a military policy that polls surprisingly well among Americans but essentially means attacking any Russian aircraft that enters Ukrainian airspace. Ukraine’s resistance in the face of Russian aggression helped push Western leaders to take more robust action, as this fight became framed in Washington and in European capitals as a fight between autocracy and democracy. The most likely military scenario in my view is going to be a series of rolling operations that they can stop at any point along the way based on how the West reacts, said Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general who was commander of U.S. So for Putin, he will see this is a very propitious moment, to re-up the idea of a negotiation for a ceasefire on his terms. The aim was to overwhelm Ukrainian forces and prompt a change of government that would be friendly to Moscow. This may not necessarily be a conscious decision to end enlargement or association policies; but it will be de facto policy. The problem, however, is an awful lot of countries don’t want to see Putin lose either, because they want Putin and Russia as a counterweight.
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