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The consequences of Russias invasion of Ukraine for international security NATO and beyond

 It will heighten concerns about the strength of the post-1989 international order and America’s ability to influence it. Ukraine has declared martial law - which means the military takes control temporarily. It has cut diplomatic ties with Russia, offered weapons to anyone who wants them and declared an overnight curfew for Kyiv. On 27 and 28 February 2022, both Ukranian and Russian officials met on the Belarusian border for the first round of peace talks. However, sources have confirmed that no agreements were made and negotiations are set to continue at a later date. Nations in the West, including the UK, have offered their support to Ukraine by supplying weapons and economic aid. But last month they confirmed plans to set up a medical facility in Ukraine. President Joe Biden has condemned the attack - much like his response to growing conflict between China and Taiwan - vowing to hold Russia accountable for their actions, alongside leaders from the UK, European Union, United Nations and NATO. While Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a imminent COBRA meeting, accusing the Russian president of choosing a path of bloodshed and destruction by launching the attack on Ukraine. Elsewhere on the BBC While Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces continue to pursue his war aims, Ukraine’s armed resistance has impressed the West by facing down a much larger opponent. Following Ukrainian successes early on in the war, Russia has turned its attention towards Ukraine’s easternmost Donbas border region—and the more recent phase of the war has been going more in Moscow’s favor. Still, analysts tell TIME that it could be a long road ahead, with negotiations largely abandoned and fierce fighting ongoing. There's also been heavy street-to-street fighting in areas including the second largest city of Kharkiv. And Russian troops have been advancing and attacking - against the north-eastern city of Chernihiv and the southern city of Maripul, among many others. Ukraine's Defense Ministry said last week that its main goal in 2024 is to boost its domestic defense industry in the face of uncertain future supplies from its Western allies. The United States is weighing whether to send Ukraine lightweight Stingers or other air defense systems and Iron Dome defenses against short-range missiles. The United States might provide Mi-17 helicopters, which were being readied for Afghanistan. Ukraine has bought Turkish TB-2 armed drones, which proved so effective in last year's Armenia-Azerbaijan war. Ukraine could benefit from better command and control, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance capabilities. All this could help it degrade a blitz, although supply or absorptive constraints might be hindrances. Is Russia losing the war? The myth of the invincible Russian military machine has evaporated in the space of a few weeks. Russian forces had to withdraw from the vicinity of Kyiv and were beaten off in many other locations. Corruption, a disease at the heart of the Russian state, displayed itself on a grand scale in the conduct of the military operation. Russia’s human losses are enormous and, in spite of censorship, becoming known to the Russian public. According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself. All efforts comprising security and confidence-building measures, or institutional arrangements designed to preserve peace, suddenly look very fragile when faced with blunt force. That deal also contained a ceasefire agreement, which is now also void. More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that has occurred since 2014. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks. Western intelligence estimates that Russia already has up to 100,000 troops positioned near to the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and artillery. The prospect of formidable Ukrainian resistance could affect the Kremlin's risk-benefit calculus. If ground forces faltered, Russia could up the ante, such as by carpet bombing, a tactic it used in Chechnya and Aleppo. Warnings of an expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine have a “High Noon” feel. A renewed crisis could spur the United States and its NATO allies to go beyond, perhaps well beyond, their responses to Russia's 2014 assault. Any expectation by President Putin that he can control the entire country, he says, may be a major miscalculation. If they can capture Kyiv and the rest of the country, then Mr Arnold suggests there may be little advantage in pushing further west. President Putin may hope that after his forces have captured the capital and defeated Ukraine's army, the resistance will crumble. In the meantime, the ISW noted in an analysis, Ukrainian forces establish and consolidate defensive positions to conserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts. William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and U.S.-USSR negotiations to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. While Ukrainians may be unable to defeat a large-scale invasion, they could inflict high casualties, a sensitive issue in Russia. Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. We've seen in recent days a slow but certain toughening of sanctions, restrictions, actions by countries and organisations worldwide that are unparalleled. The outcome of an invasion would depend on the size of Russia's invading force and its tactics. But we don't know if there are foreigners there, covertly working with the Ukrainian army, particularly in light of the calls from Ukraine's president for foreigners to go and help. If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces. History tells us military coups and invasions have conquered by taking over television stations and presidential palaces. Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January. Despite warnings from the US and its Nato allies that any invasion by Russia of Ukraine would have severe economic consequences, Moscow's military build-up on the border continues. https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-troops-does-ukraine-have.html provided support to a Ukrainian rebellion that had broken out in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, an industrial heartland. Russia has already cut gas supplies to Europe and a Shell chief has warned Europe may have to ration energy this winter. However, he warned of chaos if European states do not show enough unity and determination. The main goal became the liberation of Donbas - broadly referring to Ukraine's two industrial regions in the east of Luhansk and Donetsk. While Russia had massed between 150,000 and 190,000 troops on the border, so far it hasn't used them all. The aim would be to create “shock and awe,” causing Ukraine's defenses or will to fight to collapse. Military flights have arrived here from as far afield as the US and Canada and it's then largely being driven across the border, due in part to the threat from Russian air power. Amid the fighting, there have been widespread reports of war crimes and attacks on civilians by Russian forces in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova, some 21,000 alleged war crimes are being investigated, with between 200 to 300 new reports arriving every day. Official expressed concern in June at the mounting number of cases of sexual violence being reported against Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine’s ability to contain Russian aggression will shape the security environment for years to come. Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and barbaric invasion of Ukraine is not only a manifestation of a huge security danger that has shattered peace in Europe. What is published in NATO Review does not constitute the official position or policy of NATO or member governments.NATO Review seeks to inform and promote debate on security issues. It didn't, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC.

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