The conflict is “already a long war when compared to other interstate conflicts, and wars of this kind tend to cluster as either being relatively short—lasting no more than weeks or a few months—or averaging several years in duration,” Kofman told me. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has found that since 1946, more than half of interstate wars like the one in Ukraine have ended in less than a year, and that when such wars persist for more than a year, they last more than a decade on average. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war. This suggests that the two sides will have difficulty ever resolving the information problem. 24 territory as they can get, force Putin to the bargaining table, and then ultimately Ukraine would have to compromise somewhat on issues like Crimea and portions of the east and arrange for solid security guarantees going forward,” Smith told Defense News in a phone interview. The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open, said UN Secretary General António Guterres. Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Ukraine is more than holding its own, but it wanted to have liberated another chunk of its territory during 2023 and that has not happened. In addition to being willing to accept huge losses, the Russians have shown themselves to be adept at defensive operations and have improved their use of drones and electronic warfare capabilities. There is also the extremely tricky issue of mobilisation which is now being addressed but requires up to 500,000 recruits. So while in principle looking at a map creates new options for the next stage of the Russian offensive in practice losses of this sort reduces the ability of Russian forces to build on any gains. Ukraine’s Commander in Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi has stressed the importance of inflicting heavy casualties on Russia, “until the enemy gives up fighting against our country,” while acknowledging that its hard to know in the Russian case when this point would be reached. Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today. Wars often do not end predictably, and a failure to achieve hoped-for victories often leads to a sudden change of government. Ukraine appears very dependent on Volodymyr Zelenskiy in terms of its public diplomacy, but he does not direct its military strategy in detail and the country’s desire to fight runs very deep. This would bear similarities to the situation after the initial Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the west would be left facing an implacable, large hostile actor in Moscow. Ukraine, meanwhile, would need years of western support to ensure its eastern border remains stable. Some Ukrainian experts fear a pincer movement to encircle Donbas and the east from Sumy in the north and Velyka Novosilka in the south, allowing Russia to occupy most of the four Ukrainian provinces it has unilaterally claimed to have annexed. Putinology: the art of analyzing the man in the Kremlin In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking. As Russian tactics become more aggressive, the Ukrainian people are paying ever higher costs. If we see the average Ukrainian’s willingness to suffer and fight lagging, it should give us cause for concern. To this end, western governments have stepped up humanitarian and defensive aid to Ukraine, in order to ensure that Ukrainian support for the war endures. In his October assessment, Snyder floated one scenario in which Ukrainian military victories prompt a power struggle in Moscow that leads Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, as Putin and his rivals judge that the armed forces loyal to them are most useful on the homefront. But what Snyder envisions is Putin prioritizing his political survival in Russia over his personal and ideological designs on Ukraine, not necessarily Putin’s removal from power. This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO. Bloomberg reported earlier this week that Putin had put out feelers to the US via indirect channels, suggesting that he was prepared to engage in talks over ending the conflict. Timothy Snyder, a historian of Eastern Europe at Yale, told me he stands by an assessment he made in October in which he similarly argued that a Russian nuclear detonation was highly unlikely. Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is more than just symbolic. What do the Ukrainian people want the world to know besides their need for our support and military aid? — Erik The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. One is that Russian forces are still strong and will prevail in a grinding war. If routed, Russia could lash out at nato, or resort to chemical or even nuclear weapons to avoid defeat. The next key date for Putin is the presidential election on 17 March. The election is so obviously rigged that it is hard for outsider observers to take it seriously as a landmark date. He would no doubt like some tangible victory before then – say the capture of all the Donbas that would allow him to argue that core objectives have been met. If there has not been any progress then at least he should take stock. The winter will be over and he can see what territory, if any, has been taken. The effectiveness of the drone and missile attacks on Ukraine can be judged. 24Ex-teacher displays harrowing photos from Ukraine, published at 06:24Ex-teacher displays harrowing photos from Ukraine On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets. In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia. But even if this occurs, that doesn’t mean the war itself will end with Putin’s downfall. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. Ukraine has been unable to put itself in a position to force a decision on Russia. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. Putin can’t keep his forces on the offensive all year long and now has to keep an eye out for new Ukrainian strikes on assets not only in Crimea (such as the recent hit on a large landing ship in the Black Sea port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea) but also in Russia proper. Having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election (the next major landmark event) and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable. A Christmas Eve story in the New York Times claimed that Putin might be trying to find a way out. Instead, over the past year Ukrainian forces have consistently and successfully pushed back the invading troops. Although for a while Prigozhin carried on with his affairs in Russia as if nothing untoward had happened, and even at one point met with his old chum Putin again, it was hard to believe that he would survive such a challenge and so it proved. There was certainly more optimism surrounding the Ukrainian position at the start of the year than there was at the end. This is partly because of the uncertainties surrounding the level of US and European support, a matter to which I will return in my conclusion. But it was largely because of the meagre returns from Ukraine’s intensive efforts to liberate more territory. That could end up looking something like the Korean peninsula, with a demilitarised zone between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territory, or a grinding perpetual conflict that flares up and down, eventually resulting in an uneasy truce. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone. And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. “The Ukrainians are negotiating with their Western partners as much as, and probably more than, they’re negotiating with the Russians,” says Olga Oliker of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank. Is Ukraine winning, because it saved Kyiv and pushed Russia back from Kharkiv; or is it losing, because Russia has taken Mariupol and may soon encircle Severodonetsk? The peace party worries that the longer the fighting goes on, the greater the human and economic cost to Ukraine and the rest of the world. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-ukraines-neutral-status.html retorts that sanctions on Russia are just starting to bite; with more time and more and better weapons Ukraine can win. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries.
https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-ukraines-neutral-status.html
