In extremis, a wartime government could inter anyone deemed a threat to public order or the war effort. The conflict in Ukraine offers a glimpse of how Britain might prepare for self-defence. Checkpoints and pillboxes would be built at motorway junctions and city entrances. Fertilizer is produced in major quantities in both Ukraine and Russia. Disruptions to those exports would mostly affect agriculture in Europe, but food prices around the world could rise as a result. The premise of sanctions is to hurt the other guy more than you hurt your own interests. But that does not mean there will not be some collateral damage, said Doug Rediker, a partner at International Capital Strategies. I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved. The G7's price cap could be lower, but that would effectively eliminate profits from Western oil suppliers, where production costs have traditionally been higher than in Russia. And even though the fall of the Soviet Union was notable for its lack of bloodshed, many in Ukraine refer to today's conflict as a true war of independence. What are the sticking points between the two countries? China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. But if Central/Eastern Europe felt abandoned by those powers, it's not hard to imagine a Polish or even a Ukrainian nuclear programme. This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO. The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-putins-goal-in-ukraine.html could fracture, he says. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide more than sufficient resources. If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe. NATO vs. Russia As the Russian military continues to squeeze Ukraine from three directions, Canada and its NATO allies are trying to de-escalate an increasingly volatile situation. Moscow could try to gamble that limited action would fracture NATO's unity, as some European governments might be reluctant to impose severe penalties in that case, Hodges said. Without a sharp response, Russia might then press ahead with more operations. A Russian naval operation would be likely to include the seizure of a tiny island in the Black Sea known as Snake Island, or Zmiyiniy Ostriv. Ukraine controls Snake Island, enabling Kyiv to claim territorial waters that extend 12 nautical miles from the island and helping to safeguard shipping lanes to the country's Black Sea ports. This would put the largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent at the forefront of NATO's defence, according to the thinktank. Ukraine has declared martial law - which means the military takes control temporarily. It has cut diplomatic ties with Russia, offered weapons to anyone who wants them and declared an overnight curfew for Kyiv. Russia did not want to occupy Ukraine, he said, but would demilitarise and de-Nazify the country. Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis. Long war That was before the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, so the promise made to then Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev referred merely to East Germany in the context of a reunified Germany. Turkey had some success last summer with the UN in mediating a deal on resuming grain exports through the Black Sea but has had no success since. China is looking for a role in securing a political settlement, but its position is probably too close to Russia to be considered an honest broker. The seeds of this war were sown in 2013, when Moscow persuaded Ukraine's pro-Russian leader to scrap a planned pact with the European Union, prompting protests that ultimately brought him down and led to Russia seizing Crimea and staging a land-grab in the east. During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine, making war the only way to protect the people in our historical lands. Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in the world order.Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all. They have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure, Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable. That, though, is partly because Ukraine had already learnt from previous Russian cyberattacks over the past decade. Another potential threat could come from anti-war politicians, whom Kremlin propagandists might seek to incite. However, don’t expect to see Jeremy Corbyn being carted off straight away. Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. A Russian naval operation would be likely to include the seizure of a tiny island in the Black Sea known as Snake Island, or Zmiyiniy Ostriv. While Covid was a useful exercise in Armageddon planning, 21st-century Britain is arguably less ready for actual warfare than it was even 30 years ago. A year into the war, he talks of Russia fighting to defend its historical frontiers and rebuilding peaceful life in Donbas and Novorossiya, spelling out that Ukraine's southern territories are part of his project, just as much as the east. Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you're seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians, he said. At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia. Strategists based in Eastern Europe are under no illusion as to whether NATO could get dragged into the conflict. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation. Other analysts warn of a quagmire — where there is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia — if an insurgency continued long term. Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin's brutality for all to see. More sanctions are expected to follow in response to what Biden said is a needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine. A lot of the Ukrainians I've talked to, while they appreciate the Western weapons supplies, say this is their war to fight. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address in central Moscow on Feb. 21. Even weakened, Russia remains capable of inflicting heavy damage upon others. NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and only a question of time. Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open, said UN Secretary General António Guterres. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone.
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