The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region. Kuzio noted that there has been speculation about Moscow seeking to install former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was stripped of his powers by Ukrainian lawmakers during the 2014 Maidan Revolution and fled Kyiv for Russia. To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 — Kherson — although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages. However it's widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin, loathing Ukraine's current pro-Western government and its aspirations to join the EU and NATO, wants to install a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv. There could be collateral damage from sanctions on Russia The US and UK have not ruled out arming resistance fighters, as during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. British ministers predict a long-running “quagmire”, with Russia suffering significant casualties. Analysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008. It may also try to seize the major ports of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Odessa on the Black Sea, and create a “land bridge” to Crimea. But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect. After many months of Moscow engaging in sham dialogue and blatantly lying to other countries and institutions, including NATO and the OSCE, all trust has been eroded. Russia has shown that it is committed to a long conflict in Ukraine and that it has the capacity to send hundreds of thousands of men to war. Such a situation is a tinderbox in Europe, Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's president, said in emailed comments Monday. He noted that it's a non-starter for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be devastated in the process, the strategists said. In this scenario, the strategists noted, Russia would realize it has once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history. Russia's military strategy has at times been beset with logistical problems, confusing the picture of what Russia's main or immediate goals are. Oil price jumps A year ago, Ukraine's international military support was solid with NATO pledging to support Kyiv for as long as it takes as it defended itself against Russia's invasion launched in February 2022. Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. In this scenario, the strategists noted that a Ukrainian insurgency could force a significant, sustained human and financial toll on Russia as it would be required to devote far more of its resources over a much longer period of time than it had anticipated. In the meantime, NATO countries would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance. Short of a full-blown invasion and occupation of all of eastern Ukraine, Russia could choose to take more limited actions that could increase its leverage over Kyiv and test Western resolve and trans-Atlantic unity, Breedlove and other experts say. Russia has started to relish its role as a predator, and it is using brutal force to achieve its imperialist goals. It's still possible Russia could pull back its troops, although Moscow's tough language suggests otherwise. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Russia is a nuclear power and he has indicated he would be prepared, if necessary, to use nuclear weapons to protect Russia and cling on to occupied Ukrainian land. NATO officials, who represent 30 nations in Europe and North America, have flatly rejected Putin's demands. While Canada has been one of the most consistent and vocal supporters of Ukraine's bid to join NATO, it probably couldn't influence Russia's actions on its own. By joining NATO, Ukraine could obtain a much greater degree of security. Each of NATO's 30 members would be obliged to defend Ukraine if it were attacked. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who took office in 2019, has tried to strengthen his country's ties to the West. He has lobbied aggressively for NATO to expedite Ukraine's request for membership. The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in the world order.Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war. That said, there wasn't much of a political will for third countries to sanction Cuba at the time. A senior European Union official has denied member states are discussing financial coercion to force Hungary to agree on financing for Ukraine. Assistance with evacuation flow is something they could do, and could do quite well. They are going to be working with Polish authorities on what that looks like and how they would handle that, Defense Department spokesperson John Kirby said last week. Oftentimes, cyber-operations go hand in hand with influence, she said. They're targeting a change of decision-making, a change in policy in that direction, a change in public opinion. Power grids, hospitals and local governments could all be targets, she said. But if the conflict causes long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom. The U.S. is also training about 100 Ukrainians on the Patriot anti-missile system in Oklahoma. Giving in to those demands would effectively restore a Cold War-era division of power in Europe, with Russia expanding its sphere of influence further west. The most likely military scenario in my view is going to be a series of rolling operations that they can stop at any point along the way based on how the West reacts, said Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general who was commander of U.S. There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite. Canada and its allies have threatened to impose a series of punishing economic sanctions on Russia if it invades. Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said his country was preparing for an influx of refugees from Ukraine. It will be a continent-wide humanitarian disaster with millions of refugees seeking protection in neighbouring European countries, Agnès Callamard, secretary-general of Amnesty International, said last month in statement. Another way Russia could respond to U.S. sanctions is through cyberattacks and influence campaigns. Historically, the market has bounced back relatively quickly after geopolitical events. It's possible today's situation with Russia might make such a policy more politically palatable if the U.S. attempted it again, though I can't find any serious proposal in the government to do just that. Occupying forces might be stretched thin and vulnerable to stay-behind insurgents. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has called on the U.S. to remove its nuclear weapons from Europe and for Western allied countries to stop rotating their troops through several nations in Eastern Europe. Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed. And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an instant and devastating response. RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. The intelligence official described the build-up as a slow drip and a slow ratcheting up of pressure. With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy. Russia lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine and will do what it can to hold on to what it currently occupies, using the time to strengthen its defences while it hopes for the West to lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. The Ukrainian president has published his income over a two-year period as part of a drive to promote transparency. https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-dont-ukraine-bomb-the-convoy.html is India's largest arms supplier, but the war in Ukraine has limited Moscow's ability to provide munitions. Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies. From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed neo-Nazis in Ukraine. I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved. But, as the aggression continues, with Russia concentrating its efforts on gaining control of eastern and southern Ukraine via a war of attrition, Western unity is being tested. Divergent interpretations over sanctions that affect the transport of prohibited goods to Kaliningrad illustrate this problem. Canada and its allies have threatened to impose a series of punishing economic sanctions on Russia if it invades. The United States, which is spearheading efforts to deter Russia, has said the sanctions would go into effect just hours after an invasion.
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