Ukraine has bought Turkish TB-2 armed drones, which proved so effective in last year's Armenia-Azerbaijan war. Ukraine could benefit from better command and control, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance capabilities. All this could help it degrade a blitz, although supply or absorptive constraints might be hindrances. The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. But, as the aggression continues, with Russia concentrating its efforts on gaining control of eastern and southern Ukraine via a war of attrition, Western unity is being tested. But to disable the corrosive effect of Moscow’s nuclear blackmail against Allies, a more robust declaratory nuclear policy by NATO is in order. The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. His declared goal on 24 February 2022 was to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine and not occupy it by force, days after backing independence for eastern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian proxy forces since 2014. Each of NATO's 30 members would be obliged to defend Ukraine if it were attacked. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who took office in 2019, has tried to strengthen his country's ties to the West. He has lobbied aggressively for NATO to expedite Ukraine's request for membership. Some previous Ukrainian governments pursued closer ties with Russia. Russia now appears to be threatening military action as a way to break that stalemate. NATO officials, who represent 30 nations in Europe and North America, have flatly rejected Putin's demands. What happens if Russia invades Ukraine? The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany will be frozen indefinitely. The primary aim would be the rapid capitulation of Ukraine’s government in Kyiv and the “neutralisation” of its elected leaders. Key targets would include the presidential palace, parliament, ministries, media outlets and the Maidan Nezalezhnosti – the symbolic site of Ukraine’s pro-democracy revolutions. The U.S. military says that the thousands of soldiers deployed to Poland this month are prepared to assist with a large-scale evacuation. The invasion could send 1 million to 5 million refugees fleeing Ukraine, U.S. officials and humanitarian agencies have warned. Russia’s military is likely to make a formal entrance into the territories soon. Its troops and military vehicles have secretly taken part in the fighting since 2014, but this deployment will probably be much larger. Moscow will now threaten Ukraine with a broader war if it continues to fight against the “separatists”, telling Kyiv that Russia is now obliged by treaty to defend them from attack. The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged. Hundreds of thousands may flee, presenting Europe with a huge humanitarian and refugee emergency. Gross human rights violations and chemical weapons atrocities, as in Syria, cannot be ruled out. On patrol as Ukraine’s navy prepares for a Russian invasion Unless Putin is doing all of this only to maximise his leverage in talks with the West. And the more aggressive action taken by Russia and the more sanctions put in place in response by the West, the less likely diplomacy is to succeed. On the face of it no one wants this conflict to spread but there is always the law of unintended consequences and mistakes and misunderstandings escalating into an expanded conflict, as has happened in wars in the past. International affairs editor Dominic Waghorn and our team of specialist correspondents answered your questions on the Ukraine crisis in a live digital Q&A. In his eyes, the West promised back in 1990 that Nato would expand not an inch to the east, yet did so anyway. That was before the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, so the promise made to then Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev referred merely to East Germany in the context of a reunified Germany. But under Putin's rule, Russia has invaded Ukraine before, and it invaded Georgia in 2008. Convoys have also entered the eastern Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, and moved into the Kherson region from Crimea - a territory that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. Russia has said it will take what it calls military-technical measures to protect its security. What that means exactly isn't clear — and Moscow may want it that way. If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces. Russia could seize much of the east and demand a new political arrangement from Kyiv or simply annex the area, as it did with Crimea, experts said. Moscow could try to gamble that limited action would fracture NATO's unity, as some European governments might be reluctant to impose severe penalties in that case, Hodges said. Without a sharp response, Russia might then press ahead with more operations. Seize eastern half of Ukraine According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself. All efforts comprising security and confidence-building measures, or institutional arrangements designed to preserve peace, suddenly look very fragile when faced with blunt force. After many months of Moscow engaging in sham dialogue and blatantly lying to other countries and institutions, including NATO and the OSCE, all trust has been eroded. Moreover, by creating economic shocks in the energy markets and weaponising famine as a political instrument, Russia has further globalised the consequences of its war. https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-ukraine-air-force.html (military and civilians alike) are being killed simply because they are Ukrainians. But under Putin's rule, Russia has invaded Ukraine before, and it invaded Georgia in 2008. It also intervened in Syria to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad. And in each case, the threat of sanctions failed to dissuade Putin. Russia’s key demand is that Ukraine and other countries be blocked from joining Nato – a concession the alliance has firmly ruled out. The move led to mass protests through the country and he left office in that same year. Before Western artillery arrived in the east last summer, Kyiv officials said 100 to 200 troops were dying every day. US leadership has once again proven essential in successfully mobilising international efforts, especially in coordinating military support to Ukraine. Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January. A Russian naval operation would be likely to include the seizure of a tiny island in the Black Sea known as Snake Island, or Zmiyiniy Ostriv. Latest examples include curtailing gas supplies for political reasons, violating the airspace of a NATO country, threatening Lithuania, and using economic blackmail against Collective Security Treaty Organization member, Kazakhstan. Prior to the talks, Ukraine officials shared that Russia had dropped preconditions to any peace deal. However, Ukraine's foreign minister Dymtro Kuleba added that the Russian president's announcement that nuclear weapons were now on high alert was a move to put pressure on the country during negotiations. They’ve also criticised the US and NATO for giving Ukraine weapons, saying that it’s encouraging rebel areas. After an uneasy peace with Ukraine, Moscow has sent forces into the Baltics, clashing with British troops based there to protect Nato’s eastern flank. Russia has assembled up to 190,000 forces personnel, including ground, sea and air, around Ukraine, armed with fast jets, artillery, warships and tanks. Russia has gathered up to 190,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and is positioned to launch an attack that could threaten the capital, Kyiv, and sweep across much of the country. An offensive of that size has not been seen in Europe since the second world war. US forces will not get directly involved now, but military assistance will be swiftly provided by some Nato states, including lethal aid, intelligence-sharing and weapons such as man-portable missiles (as in Afghanistan). What is published in NATO Review does not constitute the official position or policy of NATO or member governments.NATO Review seeks to inform and promote debate on security issues. NATO officials, who represent 30 nations in Europe and North America, have flatly rejected Putin's demands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who took office in 2019, has tried to strengthen his country's ties to the West.
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