The United States might have to push to reform outdated elements of the world’s security architecture, such as the UN Security Council, so that they no longer reflect a bygone era in which a small group of big powers got to determine the course of international affairs. There is always a risk of nuclear escalation but I do think both sides are being cautious, Partlett says. Russia's current strategy does appear to be one that will avoid nuclear escalation, which likely reflects pressure from China not to use tactical nuclear weapons. NATO members like Poland are very hawkish and are willing to move at a much faster pace in comparison with countries like Germany, he says. The United States is somewhere in the middle but is hoping to ensure that they do not escalate the pace of military support, particularly offensive weaponry, to Ukraine too quickly to avoid a nuclear escalation between the US and Russia. This would make a future Ukrainian state less functional and prosperous,” said Shea, who is also a former deputy assistant secretary-general for emerging security challenges at NATO. In his self-assessment, Phillips O’Brien concludes that he was too optimistic in assuming that the US and its allies would transfer the long-range systems necessary to attack and disrupt the supply lines behind enemy lines. There were in fact already obvious tensions in the Russian high command. Even though the end of the war is not yet in sight, he says he can envision a scenario for which a precedent exists. Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the Defender of the Fatherland Day, the former Day of the Soviet Army, in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today. But if Central/Eastern Europe felt abandoned by those powers, it's not hard to imagine a Polish or even a Ukrainian nuclear programme. How will the war in Ukraine end? However, there is a risk if this were to happen that Russia would launch another invasion in future, once it had time to replenish its stocks. If it's a smaller front-line, and less fighting, they'd both be building up and looking for a way to break through. But, at least for a while, they'd have a way to rebuild. The elites and potential successors are watching [Putin's] every military move, but they can already see that he has no place in their post-war vision of the future, Russian journalist Andrey Pertsev wrote in his analysis for the Carnegie Endowment. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. There is enough money left for one more military aid package, but then it depends on a new deal. Moreover, such a scenario would not be politically justifiable for Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Both sides are now digging in as Moscow’s “special military operation”, which was intended to last a matter of days, grinds into another year of attritional warfare. How long the fighting will last and the form it takes depends on the extent and type of the problem. The war in Ukraine conjures up a strong sense of historical déjà vu. One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. This was at the dog end of the costly and unimpressive Russian offensives of the first part of the year. Surovikin’s connections to Prigozhin left him banished (though not dead). Ukraine says corrupt officials stole $40 million of weapons money In theory, they could threaten to curtail support if they grow weary of the war or if Ukraine, encouraged by its military advances, crosses a threshold that could spark an escalation unacceptable to the West. But it noted that US officials had said they were unaware of any such proposals and that they had no sign that the Russian president was serious about looking to bring his forces' invasion of Ukraine to a close. There is a difference between keeping options open, perhaps seeing what response tentative, private probes might get, and going public with a concrete proposal. Most likely a new diplomatic effort would start with a third party initiative. Anything that generated any momentum would certainly change the context. Then both sides would have to show they cared about peace, even while reserving their positions. One year ago, Russia launched a war that many never expected it to wage and assumed it would quickly win against a cowed Ukraine and its allies. For a war that has defied expectations, those questions might seem impossible to answer. Yet I recently posed them to several top historians, political scientists, geopolitical forecasters, and former officials—because only in imagining potential futures can we understand the rough bounds of the possible, and our own agency in influencing the outcome we want. “Essentially once the West made a decision that Ukraine is important … it had to support them to the end, and that means the Ukrainians are the ones who will decide when they’re going to stop,” he said. The US and its allies were quick to provide aid that has been vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Like Stalin’s invasion of Finland in the Winter War of 1939, the Russian army is bogged down and bloodied by a much smaller, outgunned enemy. Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, only a handful of villages have been recaptured. https://euronewstop.co.uk/who-predicted-russia-ukraine-war.html judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority. Though recorded in 21st-century fashion through up-close-and-personal shots from mobile phone cameras and high-definition drone footage, the images being captured – of artillery duels and trench warfare – have a distinctly last-century feel to them. Apart from a few exceptions, almost all of the tens of thousands of people who have died in this war have been on Ukrainian territory.
https://euronewstop.co.uk/who-predicted-russia-ukraine-war.html