More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. Significant Ukrainian forces were also freed after a Russian retreat from Kherson. For them the most strategically valuable direction is south, to Melitopol or Berdyansk, aiming to cut the Russian mainland corridor to Crimea. That would be a major Ukrainian victory, and that is exactly why Russians are fortifying Melitopol. The occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will continue but a major Russian breakthrough like a drive from the south to Pavlograd to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas is less likely. The Russian pull-out from Kherson has partly led me to this conclusion. As for Ukraine's offensive, Mr Podolyak said the Wagner mutiny did not last long enough to influence the fighting along a front of 1,800 kilometres, the longest - he said - in any war since 1945. In his mind, the communist leadership tore Ukraine from its true home in the Russian empire. But the sizable swaths of terrain Ukraine wants to liberate will take time, and to even build the necessary forces will take six months, Donahoe estimated. Vladimir Putin depends on oligarchs, the Russian mafia and the military for his survival. Although Putin attempted to build up a financial bulwark that would allow him to protect the interests of the oligarchs, the sanctions imposed by the west have undercut most of his efforts. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries. The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, only a handful of villages have been recaptured. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. Russia claims a PEACE DEAL is close after Putin’s army pummelled by Ukraine We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Wars require the tacit approval and support of those on the home front. Moscow called it a “gesture of goodwill” aimed at showing it backed efforts to restart food exports from Ukrainian ports, but Kyiv hailed it as a victory, saying it had forced the Russians to retreat. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. Rather than going to war, which is very costly, competing states prefer to settle these disagreements peacefully. He practically destroyed the key institutions of the modern state of Russia. My job will be to restore these institutions, said Mr Nadezhdin. Opposition leader Alexey Navalny, once seen as a major threat to the president's authority, has been in jail since 2021. A would-be challenger to Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would end the war in Ukraine on day one of his presidency. Even though the end of the war is not yet in sight, he says he can envision a scenario for which a precedent exists. When will it be over? What's it going to take to get Russia out of Ukraine? — Sam There is enough money left for one more military aid package, but then it depends on a new deal. The main reason for the assessment that it suits Putin to hang in there is that over time western support for Ukraine will drift away. Indeed, Putin was quite explicit about this in his press conference of 14 December. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. A Christmas Eve story in the New York Times claimed that Putin might be trying to find a way out. Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military. Military experts warn that this means the war is likely to be prolonged, putting immense pressure on Ukraine to fight for several more years to come, potentially, and on its international partners to commit billions of dollars more in military, humanitarian and financial resources. It is theoretically possible for the U.S. to sanction countries that maintain economic ties with Russia. The best precedent for this is perhaps the Helms–Burton Act, which extended U.S. sanctions on Cuba toward any foreign company doing business with both Cuba and the U.S. at the same time. When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable. Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 704 The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leader appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank. Ukraine is assembling a force of more than 100 western Leopard 1 and 2 tanks, plus others, and a similar number of armoured vehicles that it hopes to use whenever the spring muddy season eases, to smash through Russia’s defensive lines in a D-day offensive. Anything that generated any momentum would certainly change the context. Then both sides would have to show they cared about peace, even while reserving their positions. Military moves would start to be judged by how they affected prospective talks. Even if there was https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-big-is-ukraine-compared-to-uk.html in peace negotiations these could well be played for time and propaganda effect without much expectation that they would lead to an agreement. However, that does not mean that there are likely to be serious peace talks and a possible end to the war in 2024. As Russian tactics become more aggressive, the Ukrainian people are paying ever higher costs. If we see the average Ukrainian’s willingness to suffer and fight lagging, it should give us cause for concern. To this end, western governments have stepped up humanitarian and defensive aid to Ukraine, in order to ensure that Ukrainian support for the war endures. In his October assessment, Snyder floated one scenario in which Ukrainian military victories prompt a power struggle in Moscow that leads Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, as Putin and his rivals judge that the armed forces loyal to them are most useful on the homefront. As Russia’s military campaign grinds on, experts weigh in on the most likely scenarios going forward. All one can say is that intense diplomatic activity can generate its own dynamic and could be a feature of 2024 largely absent from 2023. After a year in which both sides looked forward to military advances and were disappointed, this new year starts with expectations so low that the only way we can possibly be surprised is by developments that get us closer to a resolution. To keep up the military effort, Putin may need further mobilisation (something he said at his press conference not to be necessary). This is not a prediction but it would not wholly be a surprise if he decided that this was as good a moment as any to suggest the possibility of a ceasefire arrangement. Meanwhile, Putin can look to the post-Soviet space for an example of how to play the long game, said David Rivera assistant professor of government at Hamilton College, Clinton, New York. It looks eastwards towards Moscow but lost its hammer-and-sickle emblem this year after officials voted to replace it with Ukraine’s trident coat of arms. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. But this isn't the first time Russia has launched a military attack in this region. Although it is not known when the conflict will end, Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich, said the end would depend on Kremlin resources. The world was united in shock when Russia invaded Ukraine, with prominent members of the international community calling for an end to the conflict.
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