If the destruction of cities like Mariupol is anything to go by, Russia doesn't seem intent on preserving the areas it's fighting to take control of. Putin understands that he must do something to show evidence of the Russian power that he has been promising to his people, and has been so drastically underdelivered in this war. Instead, Russian forces were faced with several setbacks, including logistical issues, equipment issues, morale issues, as well as being faced with a far more formidable opponent in the Ukrainian forces than anticipated. Added to that are the recent border crisis involving thousands of migrants in Belarus, as well as Russia's backing of separatists in the Caucasus and elsewhere, he said. The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. But the ruthless conduct of the military campaign (e.g. indiscriminate use of blanket shelling) means that even incompetent Russian forces can achieve gains against the Ukrainian military, though it is being modernised at record pace. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. On February 22, in the days before Putin launched a full-fledged war on Ukraine, he sent Russian troops into Donbas and declared two provinces there independent. Putin would be thrilled if Trump would come back to power because he also anticipates that Trump will pull the United States out of NATO, that Trump will rupture the U.S. alliance system, and that Trump will hand over Ukraine. Mark Hertling, who was the top commander of the US Army’s European forces before retiring in 2013, says that the corruption within the Russian military has slowed down the advance. Experts said there are still some economic penalties left in the toolbox, but what’s already in place is massively damaging to the Russian economy. Russia’s economy is expected to dramatically shrink; its stock market remains closed. And even if these sanctions are targeted toward Russia’s ability to make war, the damage done to the Russian economic system will inevitably trickle down to ordinary Russians. These penalties are widespread — besides Europe, partners like South Korea and Japan have joined in. Energy prices could rise It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives. This will make the war in Ukraine a longer and more traumatic enterprise than anything Europe has known since the middle of the last century. The coming year will demonstrate whether Russia - and its suppliers in North Korea and Iran - or Ukraine - and its Western backers - are able and prepared to meet the voracious demands of industrial-age warfare. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. Ukraine’s resistance in the face of Russian aggression helped push Western leaders to take more robust action, as this fight became framed in Washington and in European capitals as a fight between autocracy and democracy. A lot of credit goes to Zelenskyy himself, whose impassioned pleas to Western leaders motivated them to deliver more lethal aid to Ukraine and implement tougher sanctions. In the aftermath of Russia’s Ukrainian invasion, the United States and its allies imposed unprecedented sanctions and other penalties on Russia, acting with a swiftness and cohesion that surprised some observers, including, most likely, Putin himself. The longer and harder the Ukrainian resistance fights, the more likely Russia may deploy more aggressive tactics to try to achieve their aims. They are trying to grind down the Ukrainian people’s morale, and unfortunately, that includes the bodies of Ukrainians,” Moller said. This toll is expected to climb, especially as the Russian offensive intensifies around Ukrainian cities, where shelling and strikes have hit civilian targets, and as efforts at high-level Ukraine-Russia negotiations have so far failed. Putin raised the threat, but what are Russia's nuclear capabilities? Russian efforts at sowing disorder can be contrasted to Western efforts at restoring order. Russia has Europe’s largest conventional military, which it is more than ready to use. The EU’s defense policy—in contrast to NATO’s—is far from being able to provide security for its members. Russia could seize much of the east and demand a new political arrangement from Kyiv or simply annex the area, as it did with Crimea, experts said. Previous smaller-scale operations failed to resolve Russia's dispute with Ukraine or to meet Moscow's political objectives, Kofman said. If they weren't able to compel Ukraine towards a desirable outcome by taking half of the Donbass, what would another limited incursion achieve exactly? he said. The most likely military scenario in my view is going to be a series of rolling operations that they can stop at any point along the way based on how the West reacts, said Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general who was commander of U.S. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia. President Biden said prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine that the not-yet-operational Nord Stream 2 pipeline would not move ahead in the event of an invasion. The forthcoming sanctions could include restrictions on major Russian banks that would dramatically affect Russia's ability to conduct international business. Severe U.S. sanctions could drive up prices for everyday Russians or cause Russia's currency or markets to crash. Here's how the invasion will have ripple effects far outside the borders of the conflict. If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces. Stephan Fruehling, a nuclear weapons and NATO expert from the Australian National University, said throughout history nuclear powers looked for an alternative to using nuclear weapons, but the crisis in Ukraine was different. Jessica Genauer, international relations lecturer at Flinders University, said the chance of nuclear weapons being used has increased significantly in recent weeks as more Russians voice their objections to how the war is being fought. The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so. On 27 May, Finance Minister Siluanov admitted that “money, huge resources are needed for the special operation”. Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be fraught with danger, the analysts warned. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. If Russia were to opt for a larger operation, it could decide to avoid a long-term occupation of cities and simply pull back after having inflicted a devastating strike to Ukraine's army, some experts said. The old Cold War maxim of MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies. Refugees will flee in multiple directions, quite possibly in the millions. And those parts of the Ukrainian military that are not directly defeated will continue fighting, echoing the partisan warfare that tore apart this whole region of Europe during and after World War II. Cold War analogies will not be helpful in a world with a Russianized Ukraine. Now, as Russia's fronts are collapsing and Ukrainian forces take back areas occupied by Russia, Moscow is desperate to save face. He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and only a question of time. The United States maintains by far the world's most powerful nuclear stockpile, but with the US out of the mix, the French and British, with their much smaller arsenals, would be Europe’s only nuclear deterrent, Mr OBrien says. And for millions of Ukrainian people the fears over how the crisis will impact their daily lives is ever present. A partition of Ukraine would not create a north and south Ukraine or an East and West Ukraine, along the lines of a partitioned Ireland or partitioned Korean peninsula or partitioned Germany after World War Two. He is an obstacle for Putin to be able to win on the battlefield of Ukraine. Putin would be thrilled if Trump would come back to power because he also anticipates that Trump will pull the United States out of NATO, that Trump will rupture the U.S. alliance system, and that Trump will hand over Ukraine. So right at this particular moment, Putin sees an awful lot that he can get out of undermining Biden’s position. But urban warfare is, by nature, murky and complex and often far more deadly. Even if https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-a-no-fly-zone-above-ukraine.html attempts precision attacks, it can have a cascading effect — Russia bombs alleged military targets, those operations move, Russia bombs again. “You’re going to use so many of them, the end result is the same as if you just used indiscriminate, mass artillery barrage,” said Lance Davies, a senior lecturer in defense and international affairs at the UK’s Royal Military Academy. Just because Russia may ultimately succeed militarily does not mean it will win this war. The political, domestic, and international costs to Russia could challenge Putin’s regime. Severe U.S. sanctions could drive up prices for everyday Russians or cause Russia's currency or markets to crash. For months, Russia built up troops along the Ukrainian border, reaching around 190,000 on the eve of the invasion. The only way that that happens is when Russia believes that everybody else has the fortitude and staying power for this conflict. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be devastated in the process, the strategists said. “One thing we do know is that Putin is very patient, and he can’t withdraw until he says that he’s had a victory,” Stent says. They have also developed a strong civil resistance enabled by volunteers of all stripes. “All the nation is involved, not only the army,” said a Ukrainian person who has been supplying medicines. But Russia’s history of incursions, invasions, and occupations under Putin — including Chechnya, Georgia, and Crimea — have foreshadowed a new, even more brutal war. Urban warfare is particularly calamitous, as civilians who have not evacuated are often caught in the middle of battles that happen block-by-block. Russia’s military tactics in cities — witnessed in places like Syria and Grozny in Chechnya in 1999 — have shown little regard for civilian protection.
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