Return to site

Russia could be on the brink of invading Ukraine Here's what might happen next

 They’ve also criticised the US and NATO for giving Ukraine weapons, saying that it’s encouraging rebel areas. After an uneasy peace with Ukraine, Moscow has sent forces into the Baltics, clashing with British troops based there to protect Nato’s eastern flank. Russia has assembled up to 190,000 forces personnel, including ground, sea and air, around Ukraine, armed with fast jets, artillery, warships and tanks. Russia has gathered up to 190,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and is positioned to launch an attack that could threaten the capital, Kyiv, and sweep across much of the country. An offensive of that size has not been seen in Europe since the second world war. US forces will not get directly involved now, but military assistance will be swiftly provided by some Nato states, including lethal aid, intelligence-sharing and weapons such as man-portable missiles (as in Afghanistan). That's what could happen if the United States cut off military aid to Ukraine and Europe followed suit, according to a prominent thinktank. First there came the manufacturing of a critical emergency in two areas of eastern Ukraine that have been under the control of Russia-backed separatists since 2014. Compared to Cold War practice, today, Kremlin propagandists and officials engage in highly irresponsible rhetoric advocating for the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal against Ukraine, and possibly even against NATO states. In the worst-case scenario, Russia would launch an air and ground campaign across Ukraine to seize the entire Donbass region east of the Dnieper River. A Russian naval operation would be likely to include the seizure of a tiny island in the Black Sea known as Snake Island, or Zmiyiniy Ostriv. Ukraine controls Snake Island, enabling Kyiv to claim territorial waters that extend 12 nautical miles from the island and helping to safeguard shipping lanes to the country's Black Sea ports. Moscow increasingly restricts the movement of Ukrainian-bound vessels in the area, and experts say Russia could blockade the southeastern port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol, choking off an important shipping channel. What gains has Russia made? But if the conflict causes long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom. Historically, the market has bounced back relatively quickly after geopolitical events. That's what's most likely today too, analysts say, so the effect on people with 401(k) accounts may be short term. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. And they have made clear that they will not send combat troops to Ukraine. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. In 2018, he showed a boastful video simulating a nuclear-armed missile attacking Florida. Concrete decisions will matter more than any new organisational organigrams, and sophisticated plans or strategies are valuable only as long as they are made real. This would put the largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent at the forefront of NATO's defence, according to the thinktank. Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO's border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean. https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-russian-tanks-have-been-destroyed-in-ukraine.html what could happen if the United States cut off military aid to Ukraine and Europe followed suit, according to a prominent thinktank. The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons. Blockade Ukraine's ports After more than four months of fighting, it is Russia that is experiencing manpower shortages. Numerous cases of conscription offices being set on fire in Russia suggest strongly that many young people are opposed to being sent to the frontlines in Ukraine. Almost four million Russians have travelled away from Russia so far in 2022, many choosing not to return for the time being. It is the largest such exodus since the Bolshevik revolution and could result in an enormous country-wide brain drain; something that is already being experienced in the IT sector. The country attempted to remove its associations with Russia and create a relationship with countries in the West. Fighting between Russian, pro-Russian and Ukrainian forces is still ongoing in the region. Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In extremis, a wartime government could inter anyone deemed a threat to public order or the war effort. Gen Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the British Joint Forces Command, told the committee that he doubted there were “sufficient munitions to sustain a high-intensity conflict for more than about a week”. The decline in manufacturing means there are far fewer factories that can be converted to make arms, as happened in the Second World War, when car makers churned out Spitfire parts. And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports. The conflict in Ukraine offers a glimpse of how Britain might prepare for self-defence. Checkpoints and pillboxes would be built at motorway junctions and city entrances. Public buildings and metro stations would be used as air raid shelters, while anti-aircraft guns might be hidden in parks. Warnings about the shrinking size of the army have also been sounded by former military chief General Lord Dannatt, who told The Times numbers had reduced from 102,000 in 2006 to 74,000 today and were still falling fast. Tobias Ellwood, a former defence minister who has served alongside Sir Patrick, said the military chief should be listened to carefully. General Sir Patrick Sanders, the outgoing Chief of the General Staff (CGS), said increasing army numbers in preparation for a potential conflict would need to be a whole-of-nation undertaking. Basic food supplies in African and Asian countries that depend on Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2020, will be hit. Whether people would be flocking into recruitment offices is open to question. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. But if the conflict causes long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom. Russia’s military is likely to make a formal entrance into the territories soon. Its troops and military vehicles have secretly taken part in the fighting since 2014, but this deployment will probably be much larger. Moscow will now threaten Ukraine with a broader war if it continues to fight against the “separatists”, telling Kyiv that Russia is now obliged by treaty to defend them from attack. The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged. Hundreds of thousands may flee, presenting Europe with a huge humanitarian and refugee emergency. Gross human rights violations and chemical weapons atrocities, as in Syria, cannot be ruled out. The government is currently spending around 2% of GDP on defence, but some want to see it rise to 3%. Speaking to Sky News about the comments, Mr Shapps insisted the size of the army would not dip below 73,000 under the Conservatives' watch - even as he resisted Lord Dannatt's calls to up the defence budget. How we respond as the pre-war generation will reverberate through history. Ukrainian bravery is buying time, for now. But Downing Street ruled out any move towards a conscription model, saying that army service would remain voluntary. British citizens should be trained and equipped to fight in a potential war with Russia - as Moscow plans on defeating our system and way of life, the head of the British Army has said. “We did all we could to preserve the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Mr. Nebenzya said. RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. It's unlikely they would be thrown into battle during a Russian invasion. Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. If the Kremlin rapidly moved armored units to the west of the front line, it could cut off and trap much of Ukraine's ground troops without having to occupy major cities, experts said. But until this week, Russia still recognised them as part of Ukraine. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled petty politics in Washington. According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself. All efforts comprising security and confidence-building measures, or institutional arrangements designed to preserve peace, suddenly look very fragile when faced with blunt force. After many months of Moscow engaging in sham dialogue and blatantly lying to other countries and institutions, including NATO and the OSCE, all trust has been eroded. Moreover, by creating economic shocks in the energy markets and weaponising famine as a political instrument, Russia has further globalised the consequences of its war. Ukrainians (military and civilians alike) are being killed simply because they are Ukrainians.

https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-russian-tanks-have-been-destroyed-in-ukraine.html