Meanwhile, domestic politics in European countries will resemble a twenty-first-century great game, in which Russia will be studying Europe for any breakdown in the commitment to NATO and to the transatlantic relationship. Through methods fair and foul, Russia will take whatever opportunity comes its way to influence public opinion and elections in European countries. Russia will be an anarchic presence—sometimes real, sometimes imagined—in every instance of European political instability. Amid the fighting, there have been widespread reports of war crimes and attacks on civilians by Russian forces in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova, some 21,000 alleged war crimes are being investigated, with between 200 to 300 new reports arriving every day. Most experts believe Russia will prevail, especially if it can cut off Kyiv, and the Ukrainian resistance, from supplies. If a pro-Russian movement or candidate shows up, that candidate can be encouraged directly or indirectly. And then there will be a constant flow of Russian propaganda and influence operations against Ukraine in which Russians will accuse the Ukrainians of violating the ceasefire, or manipulating negotiations, and will stir up political strife. The United States and Europe and their allies and other parts of the world will draw conclusions and be critical of Russian actions. In addition to strangling Ukraine's commercial ports, Russia could launch other operations in the south to consolidate its occupation of Crimea, experts say. Russian forces could move to secure a canal that Kyiv shut down in 2014. The closing of the canal has created a chronic water supply problem on the Russian-held peninsula. Moscow could also try to forge a land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, possibly linking up with territory held by pro-Russian separatists. Short of a full-blown invasion and occupation of all of eastern Ukraine, Russia could choose to take more limited actions that could increase its leverage over Kyiv and test Western resolve and trans-Atlantic unity, Breedlove and other experts say. That scenario, of a Russian military incursion into a Nato country, almost unthinkable until recently, is when Nato and Russia could indeed be at war with each other. Where Russia’s War in Ukraine Stands—And What Could Happen Next Has Putin decided to initiate a conflict? The jury is still out, he said. Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and chatter being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade. The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as deeply worrying. Those concerns have been echoed by Britain's most senior military officer. What we need to do here is look for the best possible diplomatic solution, one in which Ukraine becomes an asset rather than a liability, where we use the war in Ukraine to try to stabilize the international system. The situation in Ukraine has so much riding on it at this point, and the longer this war goes on, of course, the more complicated it is. But other countries are starting to make plans for a world without us at this particular point. And you can be sure that Vladimir Putin, and President Xi and many others will be pretty ecstatic if we give up on Ukraine. The credibility of collective defence will also depend on the quick implementation of already-announced pledges for increased defence spending and the prioritisation of defence planning efforts based on the scenario of large-scale conflict in Europe. In this context, appropriate stockpiles of military equipment are essential. As current levels are eminently insufficient, procurement practices and defence industry production capacity must be adapted, and stocks augmented quickly. WASHINGTON & POLITICS Russia will use more resources and be unchained in its choice of instruments. The massive refugee flows arriving in Europe will exacerbate the EU’s unresolved refugee policy and provide fertile ground for populists. The holy grail of these informational, political, and cyberbattles will be the 2024 presidential election in the United States. The election of Donald Trump or of a Trumpian candidate might destroy the transatlantic relationship at Europe’s hour of maximum peril, putting into question NATO’s position and its security guarantees for Europe. Russia will be losing the same number of troops, if not more, Brookings’ Stent says. With or without a nuclear threat dimension, Russia’s neighbours already have valid reasons to fear the Russian predator. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation. NATO is the logical means by which the United States can provide security reassurance to Europe and deter Russia. The White House later clarified the US had no indication that Russia was preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons. Kuzio noted that there has been speculation about Moscow seeking to install former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was stripped of his powers by Ukrainian lawmakers during the 2014 Maidan Revolution and fled Kyiv for Russia. Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory. At Vox, we believe that clarity is power, and that power shouldn’t only be available to those who can afford to pay. Millions rely on Vox’s clear, high-quality journalism to understand the forces shaping today’s world. The necessity of maintaining rigorous arms control agreements will be even greater after a Ukraine war and the sanctions regime that follows it. The shock of a big military move by Russia will likewise raise questions in Ankara. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey has been enjoying the venerable Cold War game of playing off the superpowers. As a NATO member, it will not benefit from the militarization of the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Russian actions that destabilize the wider region could push Turkey back toward the United States, which could in turn drive a wedge between Ankara and Moscow. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. Russian cyberattacks have targeted Ukraine relentlessly in recent years, including attacks on the capital city of Kyiv's power grid in 2015 and 2016. And so there will always be a push, just like the Chinese are doing, to try to prop Putin up. But if he looks like a loser who is significantly reducing Russian power on the world stage and damaging others’ interests in the process, then there may be more international pressure for the Russians to get their act together, resolve this war and move on. Another aspect of having this war resolved on Ukraine’s terms is that Russia is going to have to pay for or contribute to the reconstruction of Ukraine in some fashion. https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-poland-in-relation-to-ukraine.html is another major reason why Putin would see the U.S. and its allies stepping back as a major win, because then there’d be no leverage whatsoever or pressure put on Russia for rebuilding Ukraine. Russia could just step back, wash its hands of all of this and let everybody else fix what it broke. Because every time you send a weapon to the Ukrainians, it’s an American weapon. Stephan Fruehling, a nuclear weapons and NATO expert from the Australian National University, said throughout history nuclear powers looked for an alternative to using nuclear weapons, but the crisis in Ukraine was different. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for his country’s intelligence agency to determine what had happened and for an international investigation into the crash, while also accusing Russia of engaging in wartime propaganda over the episode. Second, he thinks that a western-leaning Ukraine is dangerous for Russia. But concrete pledges of national contributions, like those announced by US President Biden on 29 June, must follow quickly from all Allies. As the crisis in Ukraine unfolds, the West must not underestimate Russia. Seventy-eight national security scholars came out against a no-fly zone, saying that scenario would edge the US too close to a direct conflict with Russia. For months, Russia built up troops along the Ukrainian border, reaching around 190,000 on the eve of the invasion. At the same time, Russia issued a series of maximalist demands to the United States and NATO allies, including an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and a ban on Ukraine entering NATO, among other “security guarantees.” All were nonstarters for the West. All sides would have to consider the potential of nuclear-armed adversaries in direct confrontation. These two responsibilities—robustly defending European peace and prudently avoiding military escalation with Russia—will not necessarily be compatible. The United States and its allies could find themselves deeply unprepared for the task of having to create a new European security order as a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.
https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-poland-in-relation-to-ukraine.html
