Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too. Conscription requires young men and women to serve for a limited time in uniform. It means that some of the population will have had some military training - and can then be assigned to reserve units should war break out. Another potential threat could come from anti-war politicians, whom Kremlin propagandists might seek to incite. However, don’t expect to see Jeremy Corbyn being carted off straight away. In extremis, a wartime government could inter anyone deemed a threat to public order or the war effort. BBC confronts man who abused boy in secretive Christian church When Ukraine retook Robotyne in August it was hoped that its forces would be able to cut the land corridor to Crimea, making Moscow's supply lines more complicated. Ukraine first announced it had made a breakthrough in mid-November - the river had separated Ukrainian and Russian forces since Moscow's troops withdrew from Kherson a year ago. It is almost two years since Russia's invasion but the situation on the ground has changed little in recent months - despite Ukraine's counter-offensive, which began in June. We divided our systems for different types of threats, he says, though of course this means relying on the West for ammunition and maintenance. Ukraine had feared ahead of the winter that Russia was stockpiling weapons for large-scale attacks. Ukraine's intelligence service, the SBU, reported on Tuesday it had found and deactivated two robotic online surveillance cameras that it says were hacked by Russia to spy on Kyiv's defences and scout out targets. As a result of the conflict, oil prices have surged past $100 (£75) a barrel to hit their highest level for more than seven years, which will impact already-rising petrol prices in the UK. Higher oil prices feed into the fuel component of CPI prices directly, while the household utility component is adjusted for expected changes in wholesale gas and electricity prices every six months via the Ofgem price gap. Gen Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the British Joint Forces Command, told the committee that he doubted there were “sufficient munitions to sustain a high-intensity conflict for more than about a week”. Permanently higher energy prices could deliver an adverse supply shock that reduced potential output in the medium term, which in turn would damage the structural fiscal position. Recruitment remained a challenge, he said, although applications to join were “the highest in six years”. The UK aspires to spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence, and Mr Shapps has said he would like to increase this to 3 per cent, though he failed to set a date last week for the target. Russia and Ukraine account for 29 per cent of global wheat exports, 19 per cent of world maize exports, and 80 per cent of world sunflower oil exports, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Here are some of the key ways in which UK consumers stand to be affected by the war. The situation in Ukraine is often fast moving and it is likely there will be times when there have been changes not reflected in the maps. By October 2022, the picture had changed dramatically and having failed to take Kyiv, Russia withdrew completely from the north. Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, and surrounded the port city of Mariupol. Why has Russia invaded? The decline in manufacturing means there are far fewer factories that can be converted to make arms, as happened in the Second World War, when car makers churned out Spitfire parts. And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports. While Covid was a useful exercise in Armageddon planning, 21st-century Britain is arguably less ready for actual warfare than it was even 30 years ago. At the end of the Cold War, most of the 100-strong network of nuclear bunkers were closed, along with around 1,500 underground posts for the Royal Observer Corps, a 10,000-strong volunteer force. Right now, such scenarios tend to exercise only the minds of Ministry of Defence war-gamers and military thriller writers. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Nato will “continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies”. That, though, is partly because Ukraine had already learnt from previous Russian cyberattacks over the past decade. Johnson is hosting an emergency COBRA meeting about the offensive from Putin and will be announcing further sanctions on Russia. Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, this month repeated that the UK wants to increase defence spending from 2.1% of GDP to 2.5% in the future. Analysis published in Le Monde quotes Ukrainian officials who said Russia still has in its stockpile around 1,000 ballistic or cruise missiles, and is able to make around 100 more per month - such as Kalibrs and Kh-101s. If, contrary to what is reflected in futures prices, energy prices stay at current levels beyond the middle of next year, the UK would face a larger and more persistent increase in the price level and fall in real household incomes. If prices fall more quickly than currently expected the reverse would be true. Permanently higher energy prices could deliver an adverse supply shock that reduced potential output in the medium term, which in turn would damage the structural fiscal position. They're always trying to find a better way to break our air defence systems and make their attack more efficient, Oleksandr Musiyenko at Ukraine's Center for Military Legal Research told the BBC. It's a view echoed by Dr Ruth Deyermond, senior lecturer in post-Soviet security at Kings College London. Clearly the Ukrainian government has been very successful in controlling the narrative about the war, certainly for the wider world, she says. We live in an unstable world. If rich counties fail to support vulnerable countries in tackling climate impacts and in their clean energy transition, it will only fuel a spiral of instability. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-ukraines-neutral-status.html earned around $54.2 billion last year from its global natural gas exports so it would be a big step to turn off the tap to Europe. If President Putin does retaliate to sanctions in this way though, wholesale prices would rocket as European countries scramble to find alternative sources. That would result in higher prices for UK bill payers as suppliers here would be forced to pay the higher going rate. Outnumbered on almost every metric - in tanks, in troops, in aircraft - Ukraine's forces, reinforced by citizen volunteers, have in many places fought the Russian army to a standstill. As a result of the conflict, oil prices have surged past $100 (£75) a barrel to hit their highest level for more than seven years, which will impact already-rising petrol prices in the UK. Its forces are running dangerously low on the vital western-supplied anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles needed to fend off the advancing Russians. The UK and our allies condemn the Russian government’s unprovoked and premeditated invasion of Ukraine. If, contrary to what is reflected in futures prices, energy prices stay at current levels beyond the middle of next year, the UK would face a larger and more persistent increase in the price level and fall in real household incomes. Gen Sanders said that within the next three years the British Army needed to be 120,000 strong with the addition of reserves. We already expected firms’ profit margins to be squeezed by other cost increases that were expected before the invasion. But Russia is a major producer in global energy markets, accounting for 17 per cent of gas and 12 per cent of oil production globally in 2019 (Chart B, bottom-right panel). And both the UK’s domestic and foreign supplies of oil and gas are purchased at market prices which, as described elsewhere in this chapter, have risen sharply following the Russian invasion and international response.
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