Although Putin didn’t rule out peace talks, he said it would get “harder” to negotiate the longer the war goes on. “One thing we do know is that Putin is very patient, and he can’t withdraw until he says that he’s had a victory,” Stent says. A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states, the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. Such a situation is a tinderbox in Europe, Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's president, said in emailed comments Monday. He noted that it's a non-starter for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be devastated in the process, the strategists said. In this scenario, the strategists noted, Russia would realize it has once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history. Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 — Kherson — although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages. Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024 The Cold War border in Europe had its flash points, but it was stabilized in a mutually acceptable fashion in the Helsinki Final Act of 1975. By contrast, Russian suzerainty over Ukraine would open a vast zone of destabilization and insecurity from Estonia to Poland to Romania to Turkey. For as long as it lasts, Russia’s presence in Ukraine will be perceived by Ukraine’s neighbors as provocative and unacceptable and, for some, as a threat to their own security. Russia changed the course of the war, saving Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from impending defeat, and then translated military force into diplomatic leverage. And even if these sanctions are targeted toward Russia’s ability to make war, the damage done to the Russian economic system will inevitably trickle down to ordinary Russians. [But] there is a real risk that Putin might look to nuclear use to actually stave off the crisis that he's facing in Ukraine. Such a move is well within Russia's naval capabilities, and it could bring Ukraine's economy to its knees, the country's former defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk warned in June. Although Putin didn’t rule out peace talks, he said it would get “harder” to negotiate the longer the war goes on. The United States is not going to be there to assist you in a crunch.” And that’s certainly what this is going to look like. The United States and its allies could find themselves deeply unprepared for the task of having to create a new European security order as a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. On March 16, the US announced $800 million in additional military aid, including thousands of anti-armor weapons and small arms, 800 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and millions of rounds of ammunition. In 2014, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine that culminated in the occupation of the Crimea peninsula in the south. Later that https://euronewstop.co.uk/when-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end.html , Russia deployed hybrid tactics, such as proxy militias and soldiers without insignia, to attack the Donbas region, where 14,000 people have died since 2014. On February 22, in the days before Putin launched a full-fledged war on Ukraine, he sent Russian troops into Donbas and declared two provinces there independent. Ukraine invasion — explained Resistance has already begun, with a nationwide call-up of men of fighting age and 18,000 automatic weapons being handed out to the citizens of Kyiv, in addition to the uniformed army and reserves who are already putting up stiff resistance. But it might not destroy the Ukrainian government - provided it has made plans to set up a new government HQ, most likely in the western part of the country. In the short term, says Brig Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a successful Russian seizure of Kyiv would be a military and political success with strategic impact. As diplomats met in Brussels on Tuesday, it remained unclear whether Putin’s order to send troops into Ukraine would be the trigger for the massive sanctions the EU has been threatening for weeks. The decision marks the end of the Minsk peace deal, a troubled road map out of the conflict that would have left the territories in Ukraine. That deal also contained a ceasefire agreement, which is now also void. Thus will military reassurance, especially of the EU’s eastern members, be key. Responding to a revanchist Russia with sanctions and with the rhetorical proclamation of a rules-based international order will not be sufficient. If Russia gains control of Ukraine or manages to destabilize it on a major scale, a new era for the United States and for Europe will begin. U.S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia. Long war I’ve just come back from Europe and from a whole host of conferences where there’s just so much rage and grievance about the United States and Putin is fanning the flames. People in Congress know that, it’s just that they’re playing a different game. They want to play up this issue of “it should be spent at home” because of the transactional nature of congressional supplemental bills. So you’re concerned that if Putin wins and Ukraine is partitioned, that will set off a nuclear proliferation race. There’ll be a lot of frustration on the part of people who thought that this was the easier option when we reel from crisis to crisis. Russia's forces outnumber Ukraine's by more than three-to-one, and there are questions about the quality of Ukraine's military leadership and how long its forces can hold out. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in the world order.Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all. Russia has already cut gas supplies to Europe and a Shell chief has warned Europe may have to ration energy this winter. He thinks he’s got clear sailing to be president in Russia from here to eternity, at least his eternity. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. That has not stopped a catastrophe from unfolding within Ukraine, even as it has prompted Western allies to effectively wage economic warfare against Moscow with unprecedented sanctions.
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